Monday, April 28

10 Ways We Get the Odds Wrong

Our brains are terrible at assessing modern risks. Here's how to think straight about dangers in your midst.

Is your gym locker room crawling with drug-resistant bacteria? Is the guy with the bulging backpack a suicide bomber? And what about that innocent-looking arugula: Will pesticide residue cause cancer, or do the leaves themselves harbor E. coli? But wait! Not eating enough vegetables is also potentially deadly.

These days, it seems like everything is risky, and worry itself is bad for your health. The more we learn, the less we seem to know—and if anything makes us anxious, it's uncertainty. At the same time, we're living longer, healthier lives. So why does it feel like even the lettuce is out to get us? Click the title above to read the entire article or the links below for the specific section you are interested in.

I. We Fear Snakes, Not Cars. Risk and emotion are inseparable.

II. We Fear Spectacular, Unlikely Events. Fear skews risk analysis in predictable ways.

III. We Fear Cancer But Not Heart Disease. We underestimate threats that creep up on us.

IV. No Pesticide in My Backyard—Unless I Put it There. We prefer that which (we think) we can control. Hmmm ...perhaps this explains why we fear dying of fire in a high rise building more than our own homes....

V. We Speed Up When We Put Our Seat belts On. We substitute one risk for another.

VI. Teens May Think Too Much About Risk—And Not Feel Enough. Why using your cortex isn't always smart.

VII. Why Young Men Will Never Get Good Rates on Car Insurance. The "risk thermostat" varies widely.

VIII. We Worry About Teen Marijuana Use, But Not About Teen Sports. Risk arguments cannot be divorced from values.

IX. We Love Sunlight But Fear Nuclear Power. Why "natural" risks are easier to accept.

X. We Should Fear Fear Itself. Why worrying about risk is itself risky.